Union Omaha 1-0 Portland Hearts of Pine — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 1 Oct 2025

📅01/10/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.42
Draw
16%
4.34
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
25%
X/2
8%
X/X
5%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
66%
-1.9pp
16%
Draw
20%
-4.1pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+6.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.9pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Omaha EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Portland Hearts of Pine EU Bookmakers 18%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.89/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.59
+16% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / +25%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
367 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
22.5 Crosses 14.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Omaha
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Portland Hearts of Pine
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.97 xG 1.22
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
322 Passes 248
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
30 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
16.06.2025 Portland Hearts of Pine 3-1 HT 0-1 Union Omaha Union Omaha USL1
11.05.2025 Union Omaha Union Omaha 2-2 HT 0-1 Portland Hearts of Pine USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Omaha
1-0
AWAY Portland Hearts of Pine
1.38 xG 0.12
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 4
341 Passes 163
78% Pass Accuracy 69%
21 Box Touches 9
21 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Union Omaha vs Portland Hearts of Pine
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Omaha squeezed past Portland Hearts of Pine 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Union Omaha as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Union Omaha had 64% of the ball to Portland Hearts of Pine's 36%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 1.38 to 0.12 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Union Omaha's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Portland Hearts of Pine led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Union Omaha and 2.50 for Portland Hearts of Pine.

What was the final score of Union Omaha vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

Union Omaha 1-0 Portland Hearts of Pine in the USA - USL League 1 on 01/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Omaha vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Omaha win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Union Omaha 64%, draw 16%, Portland Hearts of Pine 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Omaha) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Union Omaha) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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