Mbarara City 0-1 NEC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 1 Nov 2025

📅01/11/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.34
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
50%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.54
Over 2.5
40%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.44
No
51%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
21%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
16%
+5.4pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.6pp
50%
Away Win
59%
-9.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
61%
-0.8pp
40%
Over 2.5
39%
+0.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
37%
+11.9pp
51%
BTTS No
63%
-11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mbarara City EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC EU Bookmakers 62%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -32% / -32%
0.92/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/0.81
+40% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / -4%
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
223 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 419 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mbarara City
0W-0D-3L
AWAY NEC
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
39% Ball Possession 61%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 9
3 Yellow Cards 0
04.01.2025 NEC NEC 1-0 HT 0-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
09.02.2024 NEC NEC 2-0 HT 1-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
15.09.2023 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-1 HT 0-0 NEC NEC UGA
POST-MATCH Mbarara City vs NEC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC edged past Mbarara City 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had NEC as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, NEC led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Mbarara City and 1.33 for NEC.

What was the final score of Mbarara City vs NEC?

Mbarara City 0-1 NEC in the Uganda - Premier League on 01/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mbarara City vs NEC?

Before kick-off our model rated an NEC win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Mbarara City 21%, draw 29%, NEC 50%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NEC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
UGA More Uganda - Premier League
1 Nov 2025
16:00 Gaddafi vs Vipers Analysis →