NEC 1-0 Mbarara City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 4 Jan 2025

📅04/01/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.42
Draw
29%
4.19
Away
13%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.19
No
62%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
4%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
67%
-8.2pp
29%
Draw
21%
+7.9pp
13%
Away Win
12%
+0.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.6pp
38%
BTTS Yes
42%
-3.5pp
62%
BTTS No
58%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Mbarara City EU Bookmakers 15%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.25/0.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.92
-32% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -6%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
387 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Mbarara City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 0
09.02.2024 NEC NEC 2-0 HT 1-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
15.09.2023 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-1 HT 0-0 NEC NEC UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC
1-0
AWAY Mbarara City
65% Ball Possession 35%
21 Total Shots 1
4 Shots on Target 0
10 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH NEC vs Mbarara City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC squeezed past Mbarara City 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had NEC as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (62%) came in.

On the day, NEC had 65% of the ball to Mbarara City's 35%, shots finished 21-1.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, NEC had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for NEC and 0.00 for Mbarara City.

What was the final score of NEC vs Mbarara City?

NEC 1-0 Mbarara City in the Uganda - Premier League on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC vs Mbarara City?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split NEC 58%, draw 29%, Mbarara City 13%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NEC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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