CD Castellon 2-0 Malaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 1 Dec 2024

📅01/12/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.1
Over 2.5
47%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.22
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
21%
3.07
6+ Goals
11%
9.59
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.22 — our 27% vs market 19.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.49
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.2
X/1
21%
4.83
X/2
11%
10.3
X/X
11%
6.02
2/1
6%
25.0
2/2
9%
7.25
2/X
5%
15.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-4.4pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+4.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.0pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Malaga EU Bookmakers 26%
-28% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
1.63/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.27
-56% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +24%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 74%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
21.8 Crosses 17.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CD Castellon
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Malaga
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.53 xG 1.39
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
426 Passes 283
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.01.2024 Malaga Malaga 0-1 HT 0-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS3
26.08.2023 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-1 HT 1-1 Malaga Malaga İS3
30.05.2021 Malaga Malaga 3-0 HT 1-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
19.09.2020 CD Castellon CD Castellon 0-1 HT 0-1 Malaga Malaga İS2
17.02.2008 Malaga Malaga 3-1 HT 2-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
16.09.2007 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-3 HT 0-1 Malaga Malaga İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CD Castellon
2-0
AWAY Malaga
1.26 xG 0.45
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
256 Passes 290
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH CD Castellon vs Malaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CD Castellon saw off Malaga 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had CD Castellon as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, CD Castellon had 47% of the ball to Malaga's 53%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.26 to 0.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Malaga led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for CD Castellon and 1.83 for Malaga.

What was the final score of CD Castellon vs Malaga?

CD Castellon 2-0 Malaga in the Spain - 2nd Division on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CD Castellon vs Malaga?

Before kick-off our model rated a CD Castellon win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split CD Castellon 49%, draw 25%, Malaga 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CD Castellon), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (CD Castellon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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