Malaga 0-1 CD Castellon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
39%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.71
Over 2.5
51%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.61
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
24%
4.15
6+ Goals
9%
20.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
23%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
38%
-4.9pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.4pp
39%
Away Win
34%
+4.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
55%
-5.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
45%
+5.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.5pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Malaga EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 38%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
292 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Malaga
5W-0D-1L
AWAY CD Castellon
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.39 xG 0.53
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
283 Passes 426
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
26.08.2023 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-1 HT 1-1 Malaga Malaga İS3
30.05.2021 Malaga Malaga 3-0 HT 1-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
19.09.2020 CD Castellon CD Castellon 0-1 HT 0-1 Malaga Malaga İS2
17.02.2008 Malaga Malaga 3-1 HT 2-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
16.09.2007 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-3 HT 0-1 Malaga Malaga İS2
16.06.2007 CD Castellon CD Castellon 0-1 HT 0-0 Malaga Malaga İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Malaga
0-1
AWAY CD Castellon
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Malaga vs CD Castellon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CD Castellon nicked a narrow win over Malaga 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 28% / 39%) promised a tight game; CD Castellon found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Malaga had 51% of the ball to CD Castellon's 49%, shots finished 8-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Malaga had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Malaga and 0.83 for CD Castellon.

What was the final score of Malaga vs CD Castellon?

Malaga 0-1 CD Castellon in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Malaga vs CD Castellon?

Before kick-off our model rated an CD Castellon win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Malaga 33%, draw 28%, CD Castellon 39%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CD Castellon) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CD Castellon) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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