Levante 3-1 Burgos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 1 Dec 2024

📅01/12/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
21%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.5
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.49
6+ Goals
8%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 28% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.48
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.55
X/1
21%
4.81
X/2
7%
11.2
X/X
13%
5.14
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
8%
8.46
2/X
7%
15.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
53%
+0.2pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
21%
Away Win
20%
+0.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.5pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Levante EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Burgos EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +3%
1.54/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.42
-5% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
365 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 75%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
19.8 Crosses 16.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Levante
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Burgos
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.31 xG 1.28
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
320 Passes 276
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.03.2024 Burgos Burgos 1-1 HT 1-0 Levante Levante İS2
19.08.2023 Levante Levante 3-2 HT 2-1 Burgos Burgos İS2
29.01.2023 Levante Levante 1-0 HT 1-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
25.09.2022 Burgos Burgos 0-0 HT 0-0 Levante Levante İS2
17.03.2002 Levante Levante 0-0 HT 0-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
28.10.2001 Burgos Burgos 0-1 HT 0-1 Levante Levante İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Levante
3-1
AWAY Burgos
1.46 xG 1.15
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 0
434 Passes 471
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 14
POST-MATCH Levante vs Burgos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Levante beat Burgos 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Levante as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Levante had 48% of the ball to Burgos's 52%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 1.46 to 1.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Levante had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Levante and 0.50 for Burgos.

What was the final score of Levante vs Burgos?

Levante 3-1 Burgos in the Spain - 2nd Division on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Levante vs Burgos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Levante win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Levante 53%, draw 26%, Burgos 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Levante) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Levante) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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