Frosinone 3-2 Cesena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 1 Dec 2024

Frosinone
3-2 HT 2-1
Cesena
📅01/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2024/2025

Frosinone vs Cesena Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
37%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.6
Over 2.5
41%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.58
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
4.69
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.62
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.5
X/1
10%
7.25
X/2
15%
5.32
X/X
12%
4.23
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
16%
3.6
2/X EV+ ✗
14%
15.05
Value flag · 2/X at 15.05 — our 14% vs market 4.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+1.5pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.1pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-3.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.4pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Frosinone v Cesena — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Frosinone EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Cesena EU Bookmakers 45%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +4%
1.41/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.37/0.38
+1% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +150%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
288 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 77%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
16.7 Crosses 16.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.0

Frosinone vs Cesena Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Frosinone
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Cesena
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
The Meetings
28.04.2018 Cesena Cesena 1-0 HT 0-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
02.12.2017 Frosinone Frosinone 3-3 HT 2-2 Cesena Cesena İTB
31.03.2017 Cesena Cesena 1-1 HT 1-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
29.10.2016 Frosinone Frosinone 2-1 HT 1-0 Cesena Cesena İTB
01.05.2010 Frosinone Frosinone 0-2 HT 0-1 Cesena Cesena İTB
05.12.2009 Cesena Cesena 4-0 HT 1-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB

Frosinone 3-2 Cesena — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Frosinone
3-2
AWAY Cesena
1.35 xG 1.60
35% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 4
239 Passes 490
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
17 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Frosinone vs Cesena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Frosinone edged past Cesena 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (31% / 32% / 38%) promised a tight game; Frosinone found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Frosinone had 35% of the ball to Cesena's 65%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.35 to 1.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cesena led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Frosinone and 2.00 for Cesena.

What was the final score of Frosinone vs Cesena?

Frosinone 3-2 Cesena in the Italy - Serie B on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Frosinone vs Cesena?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cesena win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Frosinone 31%, draw 32%, Cesena 38%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cesena) ✗ Under 2.5
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