Ulm 1846 1-1 Greuther Fürth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 1 Dec 2024

Ulm 1846
1-1 HT 1-1
Greuther Fürth
📅01/12/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Ulm 1846 vs Greuther Fürth Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.28
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.68
6+ Goals
11%
15.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 27% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.15
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.35
X/1
14%
6.25
X/2
12%
6.33
X/X
12%
4.91
2/1
8%
33.5
2/2
15%
4.22
2/X
9%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-1.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.2pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ulm 1846 v Greuther Fürth — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ulm 1846 EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Greuther Fürth EU Bookmakers 39%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -19%
1.46/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.70
-13% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +4%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
292 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 75%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
17.6 Crosses 17.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

Ulm 1846 1-1 Greuther Fürth — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ulm 1846
1-1
AWAY Greuther Fürth
0.92 xG 1.76
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
337 Passes 271
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
30 Box Touches 31
12 Crosses 20
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ulm 1846 vs Greuther Fürth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ulm 1846 and Greuther Fürth couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Ulm 1846 had 53% of the ball to Greuther Fürth's 47%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.92 to 1.76.

What was the final score of Ulm 1846 vs Greuther Fürth?

Ulm 1846 1-1 Greuther Fürth in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ulm 1846 vs Greuther Fürth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ulm 1846 win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Ulm 1846 39%, draw 27%, Greuther Fürth 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ulm 1846), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ulm 1846) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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