De Graafschap 3-1 VVV-Venlo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 1 Dec 2024

📅01/12/2024 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.29
Draw
22%
5.15
Away
19%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.96
Over 2.5
61%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.84
2-3 Goals
38%
2.19
4-5 Goals
28%
2.52
6+ Goals
15%
5.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.46
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
22.55
X/1
18%
3.71
X/2
7%
21.15
X/X
9%
9.41
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.45
2/2
6%
14.5
2/X
7%
21.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.45 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
73%
-14.2pp
22%
Draw
16%
+6.2pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+8.1pp
39%
Under 2.5
30%
+8.7pp
61%
Over 2.5
70%
-8.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.4pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 14%
-10% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -3%
2.06/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.76
-5% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -2%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
372 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 71%
34.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
26.1 Crosses 16.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
2W-0D-4L
AWAY VVV-Venlo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.99 xG 1.65
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 5
359 Passes 277
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
30 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
26.01.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-0 HT 1-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
01.09.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-0 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
12.05.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-1 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
12.08.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-2 HT 1-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
09.01.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-2 HT 0-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
22.10.2021 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-2 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
3-1
AWAY VVV-Venlo
1.01 xG 1.19
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
323 Passes 322
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs VVV-Venlo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap got the better of VVV-Venlo 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, De Graafschap had 49% of the ball to VVV-Venlo's 51%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 1.01 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, VVV-Venlo led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for De Graafschap and 1.50 for VVV-Venlo.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs VVV-Venlo?

De Graafschap 3-1 VVV-Venlo in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs VVV-Venlo?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 59%, draw 22%, VVV-Venlo 19%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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