Stal Mielec 2-2 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 1 Dec 2024

Stal Mielec
2-2 HT 1-1
Legia Varşova
📅01/12/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Stal Mielec vs Legia Varşova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.32
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
43%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.7
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.34
6+ Goals
12%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 28% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.64
1/2
7%
24.3
1/X
6%
13.6
X/1
10%
7.87
X/2 EV+ ✗
22%
4.57
X/X
11%
4.92
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
15%
2.62
2/X
7%
13.15
Value flag · X/2 at 4.57 — our 22% vs market 17.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
26%
+6.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
44%
Away Win
48%
-4.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.8pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stal Mielec v Legia Varşova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 52%
+6% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -2%
1.09/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.10
-4% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +28%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
294 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 81%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
18.8 Crosses 19.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Stal Mielec vs Legia Varşova Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stal Mielec
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Legia Varşova
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.93 xG 1.68
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
245 Passes 428
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-3 HT 0-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
12.03.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-0 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
26.08.2022 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-1 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
30.04.2022 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 2-1 HT 2-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
07.11.2021 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-3 HT 1-2 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
09.05.2021 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-0 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL

Stal Mielec 2-2 Legia Varşova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stal Mielec
2-2
AWAY Legia Varşova
3.32 xG 2.37
56% Ball Possession 44%
21 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
402 Passes 285
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
36 Box Touches 32
18 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stal Mielec vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stal Mielec and Legia Varşova shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Legia Varşova at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Stal Mielec had 56% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 44%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 3.32 to 2.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stal Mielec had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Stal Mielec and 1.00 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Stal Mielec vs Legia Varşova?

Stal Mielec 2-2 Legia Varşova in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stal Mielec vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated an Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Stal Mielec 33%, draw 24%, Legia Varşova 44%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Legia Varşova) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✓ Over 2.5
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