AVS 0-1 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 1 Dec 2024

📅01/12/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.91
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
52%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
1.9
Over 2.5
59%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
2.09
No
43%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
3.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.57
6+ Goals
13%
13.95
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.57 — our 29% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
14.55
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
8%
23.4
X/1
9%
16.95
X/2
16%
3.89
X/X
7%
6.5
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
29%
1.89
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
22.1
Value flag · 2/X at 22.1 — our 9% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
14%
+10.6pp
24%
Draw
20%
+3.2pp
52%
Away Win
66%
-13.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
49%
-7.9pp
59%
Over 2.5
51%
+7.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
44%
+13.1pp
43%
BTTS No
56%
-13.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AVS EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 70%
+72% / +72% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +19%
0.71/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/1.21
+8% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -5%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
248 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 80%
10.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
8.0 Crosses 19.7
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AVS
0-1
AWAY Sporting Braga
0.92 xG 3.46
31% Ball Possession 69%
6 Total Shots 20
1 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 9
186 Passes 500
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
6 Box Touches 30
10 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AVS vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga squeezed past AVS 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AVS had 31% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 69%, shots finished 6-20, expected goals 0.92 to 3.46 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sporting Braga's control.

What was the final score of AVS vs Sporting Braga?

AVS 0-1 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - Premier League on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AVS vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split AVS 24%, draw 24%, Sporting Braga 52%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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