Arouca 0-2 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 1 Dec 2024

📅01/12/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
9.57
Draw
21%
5.28
Away
59%
1.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.51
Over 2.5
51%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
5.27
2-3 Goals
37%
2.0
4-5 Goals
26%
2.74
6+ Goals
11%
6.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.27 — our 26% vs market 14.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
23.4
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
6%
31.0
X/1
7%
30.0
X/2
19%
3.91
X/X
8%
10.5
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
34%
1.5
2/X
7%
31.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
8%
+12.3pp
21%
Draw
16%
+4.9pp
59%
Away Win
77%
-17.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
36%
+12.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
64%
-12.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.4pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 81%
-5% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -5%
0.85/2.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.06/0.82
-37% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +6%
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
253 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 475 · 85%
13.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.8
13.7 Crosses 20.8
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Benfica
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
0.55 xG 2.54
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
325 Passes 490
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
10 Box Touches 25
9 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.05.2024 Benfica Benfica 5-0 HT 3-0 Arouca Arouca POR
06.01.2024 Arouca Arouca 0-3 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
31.10.2023 Arouca Arouca 0-2 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica PORLC
01.02.2023 Arouca Arouca 0-3 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
05.08.2022 Benfica Benfica 4-0 HT 3-0 Arouca Arouca POR
21.01.2022 Arouca Arouca 0-2 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
0-2
AWAY Benfica
0.52 xG 2.09
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 6
374 Passes 382
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 32
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica beat Arouca 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Arouca had 49% of the ball to Benfica's 51%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.52 to 2.09.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Arouca and 3.17 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Benfica?

Arouca 0-2 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Arouca 20%, draw 21%, Benfica 59%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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