Arouca 0-3 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 6 Jan 2024

Arouca
0-3 HT 0-1
Benfica
📅06/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Arouca vs Benfica Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
5.34
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
60%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.15
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
21%
3.01
6+ Goals
9%
9.42
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.15 — our 29% vs market 18.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
11.2
1/2
7%
22.6
1/X
6%
18.9
X/1
5%
14.0
X/2
21%
3.55
X/X
8%
6.16
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
32%
1.73
2/X
7%
18.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
16%
+3.5pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.5pp
60%
Away Win
63%
-2.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.4pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arouca v Benfica — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 67%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -8%
0.81/1.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/0.97
-46% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +6%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
296 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 81%
13.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
14.5 Crosses 18.9
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Arouca vs Benfica Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Benfica
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.48 xG 2.37
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
269 Passes 524
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
7 Box Touches 28
7 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
31.10.2023 Arouca Arouca 0-2 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica PORLC
01.02.2023 Arouca Arouca 0-3 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
05.08.2022 Benfica Benfica 4-0 HT 3-0 Arouca Arouca POR
21.01.2022 Arouca Arouca 0-2 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
14.08.2021 Benfica Benfica 2-0 HT 2-0 Arouca Arouca POR
22.11.2018 Benfica Benfica 2-1 HT 1-1 Arouca Arouca POK

Arouca 0-3 Benfica — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
0-3
AWAY Benfica
0.79 xG 2.24
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 3
443 Passes 412
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
8 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica ran out comfortable winners over Arouca 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Arouca had 52% of the ball to Benfica's 48%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.79 to 2.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Arouca and 2.50 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Benfica?

Arouca 0-3 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Arouca 19%, draw 21%, Benfica 60%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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