Sporting Braga 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 6 Jan 2024

Sporting Braga
1-1 HT 0-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
📅06/01/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Sporting Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.83
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.17
6+ Goals
12%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.83 — our 27% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.06
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
14.85
X/1
24%
3.92
X/2
9%
10.15
X/X
9%
5.46
2/1
9%
22.15
2/2
9%
7.69
2/X
6%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
57%
-3.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.1pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+4.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.5pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting Braga v Vitoria Guimaraes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 22%
+5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -19%
2.04/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.41
+14% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 76%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
21.1 Crosses 23.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7

Sporting Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.08 xG 0.98
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
365 Passes 293
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
28.02.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 2-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
11.01.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-2 HT 0-2 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POK
03.09.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
05.02.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
29.08.2021 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
10.03.2021 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR

Sporting Braga 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
1-1
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.65 xG 0.91
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
409 Passes 330
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga and Vitoria Guimaraes shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Braga at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 54% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 46%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.65 to 0.91.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sporting Braga and 1.00 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Sporting Braga 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 54%, draw 23%, Vitoria Guimaraes 23%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✗ Over 2.5
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