Farense 1-0 Gil Vicente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.13
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.7
6+ Goals
10%
15.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 29% vs market 26.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.05
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
11%
12.85
X/1
13%
4.79
X/2
17%
6.52
X/X
15%
4.38
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
8%
4.73
2/X
5%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-4.6pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.2pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+2.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.7pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 33%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -28%
1.69/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.39
+17% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
288 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 78%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
22.3 Crosses 18.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Gil Vicente
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.19 xG 0.73
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
195 Passes 334
65% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.05.2021 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 0-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
10.01.2021 Farense Farense 3-1 HT 2-1 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
05.05.2002 Farense Farense 3-2 HT 1-2 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
06.01.2002 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 3-1 HT 0-1 Farense Farense POR
04.02.2001 Farense Farense 1-1 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
10.09.2000 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 0-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense
1-0
AWAY Gil Vicente
2.21 xG 1.27
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
268 Passes 322
72% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 29
26 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Farense vs Gil Vicente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farense edged past Gil Vicente 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 32% — and on the day Farense made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Farense had 47% of the ball to Gil Vicente's 53%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 2.21 to 1.27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Farense had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Farense and 1.17 for Gil Vicente.

What was the final score of Farense vs Gil Vicente?

Farense 1-0 Gil Vicente in the Portugal - Premier League on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense vs Gil Vicente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Farense win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Farense 38%, draw 30%, Gil Vicente 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Farense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Farense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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