Estrela 1-1 Vizela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.68
Over 2.5
47%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.72
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.25
6+ Goals
8%
21.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
4.13
1/2
10%
30.5
1/X
5%
13.75
X/1
17%
5.58
X/2
8%
5.06
X/X
11%
4.12
2/1
5%
33.0
2/2
17%
3.59
2/X
7%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
34%
+6.8pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.4pp
35%
Away Win
37%
-2.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.1pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Vizela EU Bookmakers 40%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
0.98/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.15
+2% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
303 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 76%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
16.4 Crosses 17.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Vizela
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
24.11.2023 Vizela Vizela 2-1 HT 0-1 Estrela Estrela POK
20.11.2021 Vizela Vizela 2-0 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POK
24.07.2021 Estrela Estrela 2-1 HT 1-0 Vizela Vizela PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
1-1
AWAY Vizela
1.75 xG 0.97
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
201 Passes 348
67% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Vizela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estrela and Vizela shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Estrela at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Estrela had 40% of the ball to Vizela's 60%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 1.75 to 0.97.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Vizela led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Estrela and 1.67 for Vizela.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Vizela?

Estrela 1-1 Vizela in the Portugal - Premier League on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Vizela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estrela win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Estrela 41%, draw 24%, Vizela 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Estrela), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Estrela) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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