Benfica 5-0 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.32
Draw
20%
5.15
Away
17%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
3.14
Over 2.5
62%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
8.06
2-3 Goals
39%
2.32
4-5 Goals
25%
2.39
6+ Goals
16%
4.19
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
71%
-7.9pp
20%
Draw
16%
+3.4pp
17%
Away Win
13%
+4.6pp
38%
Under 2.5
28%
+9.8pp
62%
Over 2.5
72%
-9.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.4pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 16%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +13%
2.78/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/2.16
+18% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +11%
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
452 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 77%
36.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.6
22.5 Crosses 10.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Arouca
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.35 xG 0.53
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
506 Passes 298
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 8
16 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.01.2024 Arouca Arouca 0-3 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
31.10.2023 Arouca Arouca 0-2 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica PORLC
01.02.2023 Arouca Arouca 0-3 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
05.08.2022 Benfica Benfica 4-0 HT 3-0 Arouca Arouca POR
21.01.2022 Arouca Arouca 0-2 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
14.08.2021 Benfica Benfica 2-0 HT 2-0 Arouca Arouca POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
5-0
AWAY Arouca
5.40 xG 0.32
50% Ball Possession 50%
19 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
425 Passes 417
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
35 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica ran out comfortable winners over Arouca 5-0. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Benfica had 50% of the ball to Arouca's 50%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 5.40 to 0.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Benfica and 0.00 for Arouca.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Arouca?

Benfica 5-0 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Benfica 63%, draw 20%, Arouca 17%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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