Casa Pia 0-1 Moreirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
40%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.68
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.38
6+ Goals
9%
22.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
20%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
36%
-3.4pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.7pp
40%
Away Win
35%
+5.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.7pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreirense EU Bookmakers 38%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +14%
1.31/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/0.84
-47% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +150%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
20.7 Crosses 19.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casa Pia
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Moreirense
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.35 xG 1.22
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
259 Passes 415
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.01.2024 Moreirense Moreirense 1-4 HT 1-3 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casa Pia
0-1
AWAY Moreirense
0.59 xG 1.15
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 1
428 Passes 286
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Casa Pia vs Moreirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreirense nicked a narrow win over Casa Pia 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (33% / 28% / 40%) promised a tight game; Moreirense found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Casa Pia had 59% of the ball to Moreirense's 41%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 0.59 to 1.15.

What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Moreirense?

Casa Pia 0-1 Moreirense in the Portugal - Premier League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Moreirense win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 33%, draw 28%, Moreirense 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Moreirense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Moreirense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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