Gil Vicente 2-0 Farense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
1.75
Draw
31%
3.72
Away
35%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.21
Over 2.5
47%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.61
No
54%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.42
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.93
6+ Goals
10%
8.66
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.42 — our 28% vs market 17.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
19%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
53%
-18.9pp
31%
Draw
24%
+6.9pp
35%
Away Win
23%
+12.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
58%
-12.2pp
54%
BTTS No
42%
+12.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense EU Bookmakers 26%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -1%
1.42/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.27
-5% / +112% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -17%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
392 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 79%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
18.9 Crosses 19.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gil Vicente
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Farense
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.91 xG 1.53
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
330 Passes 219
76% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.01.2024 Farense Farense 1-0 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
01.05.2021 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 0-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
10.01.2021 Farense Farense 3-1 HT 2-1 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
05.05.2002 Farense Farense 3-2 HT 1-2 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
06.01.2002 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 3-1 HT 0-1 Farense Farense POR
04.02.2001 Farense Farense 1-1 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gil Vicente
2-0
AWAY Farense
1.90 xG 0.69
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
371 Passes 366
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 24
10 Crosses 29
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gil Vicente vs Farense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gil Vicente saw off Farense 2-0.

Our pre-match split (34% / 31% / 35%) promised a tight game; Gil Vicente found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Gil Vicente had 49% of the ball to Farense's 51%, shots finished 10-18, expected goals 1.90 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Farense led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Gil Vicente and 1.50 for Farense.

What was the final score of Gil Vicente vs Farense?

Gil Vicente 2-0 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gil Vicente vs Farense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Farense win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Gil Vicente 34%, draw 31%, Farense 35%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Farense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Farense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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