ES Metlaoui 2-1 EGS Gafsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division, 1 Dec 2024

📅01/12/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.38
Over 2.5
35%
2.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.75
No
62%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
1.9
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
17%
6.86
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-7.6pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.1pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+4.5pp
65%
Under 2.5
69%
-3.9pp
35%
Over 2.5
31%
+3.9pp
38%
BTTS Yes
32%
+6.2pp
62%
BTTS No
68%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ES Metlaoui EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY EGS Gafsa EU Bookmakers 20%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.53/0.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.51
+22% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / -20%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
383 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ES Metlaoui
0W-1D-1L
AWAY EGS Gafsa
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
01.06.2024 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 1-1 HT 0-1 EGS Gafsa EGS Gafsa TUN
09.03.2024 EGS Gafsa EGS Gafsa 1-0 HT 0-0 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN
POST-MATCH ES Metlaoui vs EGS Gafsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ES Metlaoui nicked a narrow win over EGS Gafsa 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had ES Metlaoui as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, EGS Gafsa led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for ES Metlaoui and 1.00 for EGS Gafsa.

What was the final score of ES Metlaoui vs EGS Gafsa?

ES Metlaoui 2-1 EGS Gafsa in the Tunisia - 1st Division on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ES Metlaoui vs EGS Gafsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a ES Metlaoui win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split ES Metlaoui 46%, draw 32%, EGS Gafsa 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ES Metlaoui) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (ES Metlaoui) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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