Motor Lublin 1-1 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 1 Dec 2025

Motor Lublin
1-1 HT 1-1
Legia Varşova
📅01/12/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2025/2026

Motor Lublin vs Legia Varşova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
42%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.03
Over 2.5
59%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.6
No
38%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.76
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
3.05
6+ Goals
12%
9.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.14
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
24.85
1/X
7%
12.9
X/1
11%
6.38
X/2
16%
5.54
X/X
9%
5.11
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
18%
3.32
2/X
6%
12.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.85 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.6pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.8pp
42%
Away Win
40%
+1.2pp
41%
Under 2.5
45%
-4.0pp
59%
Over 2.5
55%
+4.0pp
62%
BTTS Yes
58%
+3.4pp
38%
BTTS No
42%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Motor Lublin v Legia Varşova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 45%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -20%
1.57/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.18
+16% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -10%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
289 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 82%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.5
25.3 Crosses 23.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6

Motor Lublin vs Legia Varşova Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motor Lublin
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Legia Varşova
2.25 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.66 xG 3.12
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
258 Passes 371
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 44
20 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
10.03.2025 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 3-3 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
01.09.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 5-2 HT 2-1 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
01.07.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-3 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin HAZ
01.12.2021 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-2 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POLK

Motor Lublin 1-1 Legia Varşova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motor Lublin
1-1
AWAY Legia Varşova
0.85 xG 2.41
49% Ball Possession 51%
4 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
342 Passes 376
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Motor Lublin vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motor Lublin and Legia Varşova shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Legia Varşova at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (62%) landed while over 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Motor Lublin had 49% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 51%, shots finished 4-14, expected goals 0.85 to 2.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.25 goals for Motor Lublin and 3.00 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Motor Lublin vs Legia Varşova?

Motor Lublin 1-1 Legia Varşova in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 01/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motor Lublin vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated an Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Motor Lublin 36%, draw 22%, Legia Varşova 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Legia Varşova), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →