Inter 2-0 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Super Cup, 2 Jan 2025

📅02/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.18
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.48
6+ Goals
13%
13.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 27% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.26
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.1
X/1
18%
4.11
X/2
9%
9.76
X/X
10%
4.76
2/1
8%
25.0
2/2
8%
7.64
2/X
8%
15.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
54%
-2.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+2.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.3pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Inter EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 23%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+110% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
356 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 78%
42.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
26.3 Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Inter
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Atalanta
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.73 xG 1.07
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
430 Passes 379
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.08.2024 Inter Inter 4-0 HT 2-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
28.02.2024 Inter Inter 4-0 HT 2-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
04.11.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 1-2 HT 0-1 Inter Inter İTA
27.05.2023 Inter Inter 3-2 HT 2-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
31.01.2023 Inter Inter 1-0 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTK
13.11.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 2-3 HT 1-1 Inter Inter İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Inter
2-0
AWAY Atalanta
3.01 xG 2.34
52% Ball Possession 48%
21 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
478 Passes 438
88% Pass Accuracy 90%
34 Box Touches 32
11 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Inter vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Inter got the better of Atalanta 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Inter as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Inter had 52% of the ball to Atalanta's 48%, shots finished 21-15, expected goals 3.01 to 2.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Inter had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Inter and 0.83 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Inter vs Atalanta?

Inter 2-0 Atalanta in the Italy - Super Cup on 02/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Inter vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Inter win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Inter 52%, draw 26%, Atalanta 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Inter), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Inter) ✓ Under 2.5
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