Atletico Nacional 1-1 Once Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 2 Feb 2024

Atletico Nacional
1-1 HT 1-1
Once Caldas
📅02/02/2024 · 🕒02:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Colombia - Primera – 2024

Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.6
Over 2.5
41%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-3.1pp
31%
Draw
29%
+1.5pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.0pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Nacional v Once Caldas — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -9%
1.10/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.01
+7% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
304 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
15.8 Crosses 13.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7

Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Once Caldas
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.98 xG 0.66
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
355 Passes 284
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 9
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.07.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
27.01.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
14.10.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
12.05.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOLK
24.04.2022 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
21.04.2022 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-0 HT 2-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOLK

Atletico Nacional 1-1 Once Caldas — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
1-1
AWAY Once Caldas
1.12 xG 1.07
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
389 Passes 182
78% Pass Accuracy 61%
31 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional and Once Caldas couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Nacional at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 63% of the ball to Once Caldas's 37%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 1.12 to 1.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.50 for Once Caldas.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?

Atletico Nacional 1-1 Once Caldas in the Colombia - Primera on 02/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 42%, draw 31%, Once Caldas 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Nacional), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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