Police 1-1 Sofapaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 2 Feb 2025

📅02/02/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.66
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.54
Over 2.5
38%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.29
No
54%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
22%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-7.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
61%
+1.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
39%
-1.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
40%
+6.0pp
54%
BTTS No
60%
-6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Police EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Sofapaka EU Bookmakers 21%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
2.40/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.20/1.06
+75% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -75% / +17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
329 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Police
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Sofapaka
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.11.2024 Sofapaka Sofapaka 1-1 HT 1-0 Police Police KEN
06.02.2022 Sofapaka Sofapaka 0-0 HT 0-0 Police Police KEN2
04.12.2021 Police Police 0-2 HT 0-1 Sofapaka Sofapaka KEN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Police
1-1
AWAY Sofapaka
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Police vs Sofapaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Police and Sofapaka couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Police at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

On the day, Police had 48% of the ball to Sofapaka's 52%, shots finished 13-7.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Sofapaka led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Police and 1.00 for Sofapaka.

What was the final score of Police vs Sofapaka?

Police 1-1 Sofapaka in the Kenya - Premier League on 02/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Police vs Sofapaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Police win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Police 49%, draw 28%, Sofapaka 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Police), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Police) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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