Alverca 2-1 Uniao De Leiria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 2 Feb 2025

📅02/02/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.27
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.65
2-3 Goals
43%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
3.96
6+ Goals
8%
18.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
40%
-6.6pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.2pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+3.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.3pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alverca EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 34%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / +0%
1.58/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.18
+33% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
309 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.7 Crosses 19.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alverca
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Uniao De Leiria
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.78 xG 0.84
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
249 Passes 344
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.08.2024 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-1 HT 0-0 Alverca Alverca POR2
22.04.2023 Alverca Alverca 1-2 HT 1-1 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR3
08.01.2023 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-2 HT 0-2 Alverca Alverca POR3
21.03.2004 Alverca Alverca 1-4 HT 0-3 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
02.11.2003 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 2-1 HT 2-0 Alverca Alverca POR
07.04.2002 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 2-1 HT 1-0 Alverca Alverca POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alverca
2-1
AWAY Uniao De Leiria
1.45 xG 0.89
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
175 Passes 372
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
7 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alverca vs Uniao De Leiria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alverca squeezed past Uniao De Leiria 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (34% / 32% / 34%) promised a tight game; Alverca found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alverca had 40% of the ball to Uniao De Leiria's 60%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.45 to 0.89.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Uniao De Leiria led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Alverca and 2.00 for Uniao De Leiria.

What was the final score of Alverca vs Uniao De Leiria?

Alverca 2-1 Uniao De Leiria in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 02/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alverca vs Uniao De Leiria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alverca win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Alverca 34%, draw 32%, Uniao De Leiria 34%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/32/34) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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