St. Mirren 2-1 Aberdeen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
29%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.6
Over 2.5
46%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.52
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.7
6+ Goals
9%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.31
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.2
X/1
17%
4.64
X/2
9%
6.04
X/X
9%
3.98
2/1
8%
31.0
2/2
13%
4.78
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
14.45
Value flag · 2/X at 14.45 — our 12% vs market 4.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.9pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.3pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-0.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.9pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberdeen EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -20%
1.30/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.62
-7% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -25%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
232 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 66%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
27.7 Crosses 19.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Mirren
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Aberdeen
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.97 xG 1.45
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
211 Passes 339
66% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.12.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 0-3 HT 0-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
27.08.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-2 HT 0-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
24.05.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 3-0 HT 2-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
01.02.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 1-3 HT 0-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
24.12.2022 St. Mirren St. Mirren 3-1 HT 1-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
06.08.2022 Aberdeen Aberdeen 4-1 HT 3-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Mirren
2-1
AWAY Aberdeen
2.00 xG 0.98
68% Ball Possession 32%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
307 Passes 96
72% Pass Accuracy 47%
30 Box Touches 13
35 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH St. Mirren vs Aberdeen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Mirren edged past Aberdeen 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had St. Mirren as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, St. Mirren had 68% of the ball to Aberdeen's 32%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 2.00 to 0.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Mirren had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for St. Mirren and 1.83 for Aberdeen.

What was the final score of St. Mirren vs Aberdeen?

St. Mirren 2-1 Aberdeen in the Scotland - Premiership on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Mirren vs Aberdeen?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Mirren win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split St. Mirren 41%, draw 30%, Aberdeen 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Mirren) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (St. Mirren) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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