02/03/2024
·
18:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
0-1
AFC Sudbury vs Hitchin Town Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2-3
39%
4-5
21%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
12%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Under 2.5
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
42%
28%
Draw
25%
40%
Away Win
33%
54%
Under 2.5
45%
46%
Over 2.5
55%
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
52%
BTTS No
42%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
AFC Sudbury v Hitchin Town — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
AFC Sudbury
EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY
Hitchin Town
EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% /
-2%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-16% /
-12%
1.01/1.31
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.09/1.45
-36%
/
+4%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-24%
/
+4%
52%
Ball Possession
48%
11
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Target
5
4
Corners
4
324 · 76%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
283 · 74%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
5.0
Yellow Cards
1.3
AFC Sudbury vs Hitchin Town Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
AFC Sudbury
0W-0D-1L
AWAY
Hitchin Town
1.00
Avg Goals (FT)
2.00
The Meetings
28.10.2023
Hitchin Town
2-1
HT 1-0
AFC Sudbury
İNGNLP
2-1
HT 1-0
AFC Sudbury
İNGNLP
POST-MATCH
AFC Sudbury vs Hitchin Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
AFC Sudbury nicked a narrow win over Hitchin Town 1-0.
Our pre-match split (32% / 28% / 40%) promised a tight game; AFC Sudbury found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
What was the final score of AFC Sudbury vs Hitchin Town?
AFC Sudbury 1-0 Hitchin Town in the England - Non League Premier on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for AFC Sudbury vs Hitchin Town?
Before kick-off our model rated an Hitchin Town win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split AFC Sudbury 32%, draw 28%, Hitchin Town 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Hitchin Town) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Hitchin Town)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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İNGNLP
More England - Non League Premier
2 Mar 2024