Ternana 1-3 Parma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 2 Mar 2024

Ternana
1-3 HT 0-2
Parma
📅02/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2023/2024

Ternana vs Parma Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.8
Over 2.5
41%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.76
No
57%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.13
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.75
6+ Goals
10%
15.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 33% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.93
1/2
8%
26.0
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
13%
6.64
X/2
15%
4.59
X/X
12%
4.57
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.94
2/X
7%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+1.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
44%
Away Win
44%
+0.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.8pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ternana v Parma — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ternana EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Parma EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +5%
1.18/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.20
+9% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
320 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 74%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
21.1 Crosses 13.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7

Ternana vs Parma Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ternana
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Parma
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.55 xG 1.69
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
274 Passes 395
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 30
17 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
23.12.2023 Parma Parma 3-1 HT 1-1 Ternana Ternana İTB
11.02.2023 Ternana Ternana 1-1 HT 1-1 Parma Parma İTB
10.09.2022 Parma Parma 2-3 HT 1-0 Ternana Ternana İTB
19.02.2022 Parma Parma 2-3 HT 2-2 Ternana Ternana İTB
22.09.2021 Ternana Ternana 3-1 HT 0-0 Parma Parma İTB
01.05.2018 Parma Parma 2-0 HT 2-0 Ternana Ternana İTB

Ternana 1-3 Parma — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ternana
1-3
AWAY Parma
2.32 xG 2.59
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 5
364 Passes 361
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 25
28 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Ternana vs Parma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parma beat Ternana 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Parma as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ternana had 52% of the ball to Parma's 48%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 2.32 to 2.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ternana had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Ternana and 1.83 for Parma.

What was the final score of Ternana vs Parma?

Ternana 1-3 Parma in the Italy - Serie B on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ternana vs Parma?

Before kick-off our model rated an Parma win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ternana 31%, draw 25%, Parma 44%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Parma) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Parma) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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