Vis Pesaro 0-1 Pontedera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.78
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.2
6+ Goals
9%
20.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 33% vs market 30.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-2.5pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.8pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.5pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vis Pesaro EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Pontedera EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +20%
0.90/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.23
-22% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
288 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vis Pesaro
0W-5D-0L
AWAY Pontedera
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2023 Pontedera Pontedera 0-0 HT 0-0 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro İTC
15.02.2023 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro 1-1 HT 0-1 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
18.09.2022 Pontedera Pontedera 1-1 HT 0-1 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro İTC
02.02.2022 Pontedera Pontedera 1-1 HT 0-1 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro İTC
05.09.2021 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro 2-2 HT 2-0 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
POST-MATCH Vis Pesaro vs Pontedera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pontedera nicked a narrow win over Vis Pesaro 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 37% — and on the day Pontedera made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vis Pesaro and 1.00 for Pontedera.

What was the final score of Vis Pesaro vs Pontedera?

Vis Pesaro 0-1 Pontedera in the Italy - Serie C on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vis Pesaro vs Pontedera?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pontedera win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Vis Pesaro 35%, draw 28%, Pontedera 37%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pontedera), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pontedera) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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