Mushuc Runa 2-1 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
50%
-6.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.8pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 28%
+16% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
1.32/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.29
+15% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -25%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
299 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 75%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
23.1 Crosses 17.5
3.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mushuc Runa
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Libertad
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.71 xG 1.11
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
232 Passes 195
74% Pass Accuracy 68%
16 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 17
6 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-1 HT 0-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
09.04.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-1 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mushuc Runa
2-1
AWAY Libertad
1.89 xG 0.89
61% Ball Possession 39%
24 Total Shots 10
11 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
300 Passes 187
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 16
42 Crosses 8
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mushuc Runa vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mushuc Runa squeezed past Libertad 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Mushuc Runa as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mushuc Runa had 61% of the ball to Libertad's 39%, shots finished 24-10, expected goals 1.89 to 0.89.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Mushuc Runa had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Mushuc Runa and 0.50 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Mushuc Runa vs Libertad?

Mushuc Runa 2-1 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mushuc Runa vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mushuc Runa win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Mushuc Runa 44%, draw 28%, Libertad 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mushuc Runa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mushuc Runa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
EKV1 More Ecuador - Premier
2 Mar 2024
03:00 Delfin vs Independiente Del Valle Analysis →
23:30 Aucas vs Orense Analysis →