Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
31%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.9
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.16
6+ Goals
10%
10.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.28
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
10%
12.6
X/1
22%
5.33
X/2
11%
6.11
X/X
9%
4.96
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
13%
3.99
2/X
8%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
40%
+1.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.0pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 37%
+5% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +9%
1.59/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.51
+15% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -14%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
279 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 77%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
18.2 Crosses 15.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gornik Zabrze
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.78 xG 1.63
52% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
363 Passes 351
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.08.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-1 HT 3-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
11.03.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 HT 2-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
26.08.2022 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-1 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
14.02.2022 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-2 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
16.08.2021 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-3 HT 1-2 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
07.05.2021 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 3-1 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gornik Zabrze
2-1
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.23 xG 0.76
33% Ball Possession 67%
12 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
205 Passes 461
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gornik Zabrze nicked a narrow win over Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gornik Zabrze as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Gornik Zabrze had 33% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 67%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.23 to 0.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.83 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gornik Zabrze win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Gornik Zabrze 42%, draw 27%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gornik Zabrze), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gornik Zabrze) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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