Legia Varşova 1-1 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 2 Mar 2024

Legia Varşova
1-1 HT 0-0
Pogon Szczecin
📅02/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2025/2026

Legia Varşova vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
34%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.24
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
3.0
6+ Goals
10%
9.26
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.54
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
11%
4.57
X/2
14%
7.77
X/X
10%
5.35
2/1
7%
22.3
2/2
15%
5.32
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.5
Value flag · 2/X at 13.5 — our 11% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
49%
-12.0pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.8pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+8.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.5pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Legia Varşova v Pogon Szczecin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +16%
1.67/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.51
+23% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +21%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
339 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 76%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
22.8 Crosses 14.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Legia Varşova vs Pogon Szczecin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Legia Varşova
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.73 xG 1.34
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
354 Passes 294
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.09.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-4 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
07.05.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-1 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
22.10.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-1 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
24.04.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-1 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
31.10.2021 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 0-2 HT 0-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
03.04.2021 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 4-2 HT 4-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL

Legia Varşova 1-1 Pogon Szczecin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
1-1
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
2.00 xG 0.52
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 1
444 Passes 254
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
31 Box Touches 9
26 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova and Pogon Szczecin couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 29% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 62% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 38%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 2.00 to 0.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Legia Varşova and 2.17 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Pogon Szczecin?

Legia Varşova 1-1 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 37%, draw 29%, Pogon Szczecin 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Legia Varşova), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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