02/03/2024
·
16:25
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-2
2nd Score
2-1
Alhowra vs Tuwaiq Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
Over Pick
52%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Total Goals
0-1
24%
2-3
41%
4-5
27%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
4%
X/2
10%
X/X
7%
2/1
12%
2/2
16%
2/X
10%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 52% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
45%
Home Win
59%
23%
Draw
24%
32%
Away Win
16%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Alhowra v Tuwaiq — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Alhowra
The Market 64%
Head to Head
AWAY
Tuwaiq
The Market 20%
-81% /
-81%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-38% /
-38%
0.99/2.67
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.00/2.00
-28%
/
-51%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-100%
/
-35%
55%
Ball Possession
45%
15
Total Shots
8
5
Shots on Target
3
6
Corners
4
371 · 79%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
201 · 66%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Alhowra vs Tuwaiq
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Alhowra edged past Tuwaiq 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Alhowra as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
What was the final score of Alhowra vs Tuwaiq?
Alhowra 3-2 Tuwaiq in the Saudi Arabia - 2nd Division on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Alhowra vs Tuwaiq?
Before kick-off our model rated a Alhowra win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Alhowra 45%, draw 23%, Tuwaiq 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alhowra), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Alhowra)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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SUUD2
More Saudi Arabia - 2nd Division
2 Mar 2024