Excelsior 1-1 Roda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 2 Mar 2025

Excelsior
1-1 HT 0-1
Roda
📅02/03/2025 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

Excelsior vs Roda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.72
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
23%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.29
Over 2.5
55%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.43
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.71
6+ Goals
12%
7.34
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.17
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.6
X/1
23%
4.47
X/2
8%
9.28
X/X
7%
6.04
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
20.1
2/2
10%
6.63
2/X
7%
14.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.1 — our 11% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
54%
+0.1pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.1pp
23%
Away Win
23%
-0.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
40%
+5.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
60%
-5.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.4pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Excelsior v Roda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Roda EU Bookmakers 26%
+5% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.99/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.52
+28% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
348 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
21.0 Crosses 16.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.1

Excelsior vs Roda Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Roda
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.60 xG 1.60
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 9
308 Passes 432
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.10.2024 Roda Roda 3-0 HT 2-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
14.05.2022 Roda Roda 0-2 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
10.05.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 2-2 HT 2-0 Roda Roda HOL2
25.02.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 2-0 HT 2-0 Roda Roda HOL2
13.08.2021 Roda Roda 1-2 HT 0-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
15.02.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 1-3 HT 0-1 Roda Roda HOL2

Excelsior 1-1 Roda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
1-1
AWAY Roda
1.88 xG 0.61
70% Ball Possession 30%
21 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
14 Corners 2
528 Passes 175
85% Pass Accuracy 66%
39 Box Touches 11
32 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs Roda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior and Roda shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Excelsior at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Excelsior had 70% of the ball to Roda's 30%, shots finished 21-10, expected goals 1.88 to 0.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Excelsior and 1.50 for Roda.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs Roda?

Excelsior 1-1 Roda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs Roda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 54%, draw 23%, Roda 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Excelsior), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Excelsior) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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