Roda 3-0 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.46
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
40%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.98
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.12
6+ Goals
12%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.98 — our 26% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.65
1/2
8%
26.5
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
10%
5.78
X/2
15%
5.68
X/X
11%
4.96
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
17%
3.56
2/X
7%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-1.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
40%
Away Win
37%
+3.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.0pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roda EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 40%
-17% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +3%
1.43/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.94
-16% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -36%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
276 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 79%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
20.1 Crosses 20.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roda
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Excelsior
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.70 xG 1.76
57% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 4
436 Passes 312
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 22
28 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.05.2022 Roda Roda 0-2 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
10.05.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 2-2 HT 2-0 Roda Roda HOL2
25.02.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 2-0 HT 2-0 Roda Roda HOL2
13.08.2021 Roda Roda 1-2 HT 0-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
15.02.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 1-3 HT 0-1 Roda Roda HOL2
28.11.2020 Roda Roda 3-1 HT 1-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roda
3-0
AWAY Excelsior
1.07 xG 0.35
51% Ball Possession 49%
20 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
363 Passes 337
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Roda vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roda ran out comfortable winners over Excelsior 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 24% / 40% — and on the day Roda made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Roda had 51% of the ball to Excelsior's 49%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 1.07 to 0.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Roda and 1.67 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of Roda vs Excelsior?

Roda 3-0 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roda vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated an Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Roda 36%, draw 24%, Excelsior 40%. The final score 3-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Excelsior) ✗ BTTS Yes
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