Helmond Sport 1-1 Ajax II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.43
Draw
20%
4.49
Away
19%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.63
Over 2.5
57%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
6.36
2-3 Goals
35%
2.11
4-5 Goals
27%
2.53
6+ Goals
13%
5.37
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1.71
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.3
X/1
12%
3.9
X/2
7%
13.6
X/X
10%
7.82
2/1
6%
18.85
2/2
7%
9.0
2/X
4%
17.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
65%
-4.9pp
20%
Draw
19%
+1.4pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+3.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
34%
+9.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
66%
-9.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.0pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax II EU Bookmakers 19%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +15%
0.84/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.80
-23% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 78%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
17.2 Crosses 11.7
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Helmond Sport
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Ajax II
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.33 xG 1.25
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
239 Passes 524
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
19.04.2024 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 3-1 HT 2-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
27.11.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 4-1 HT 0-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
27.01.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-1 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
07.10.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 0-1 HT 0-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
20.12.2021 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
01.10.2021 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 3-1 HT 1-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Helmond Sport
1-1
AWAY Ajax II
1.91 xG 0.95
51% Ball Possession 49%
23 Total Shots 6
11 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
330 Passes 315
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
42 Box Touches 12
39 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Helmond Sport vs Ajax II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Helmond Sport and Ajax II shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Helmond Sport at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Helmond Sport had 51% of the ball to Ajax II's 49%, shots finished 23-6, expected goals 1.91 to 0.95.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Helmond Sport had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Helmond Sport and 1.33 for Ajax II.

What was the final score of Helmond Sport vs Ajax II?

Helmond Sport 1-1 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Helmond Sport vs Ajax II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Helmond Sport win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Helmond Sport 60%, draw 20%, Ajax II 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Helmond Sport), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Helmond Sport) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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