Helmond Sport 3-1 Ajax II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 19 Apr 2024

📅19/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
34%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.43
Over 2.5
54%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.49
No
43%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.21
2-3 Goals
35%
1.97
4-5 Goals
27%
2.72
6+ Goals
13%
6.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.53
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
5%
13.5
X/1
10%
4.7
X/2
8%
7.54
X/X
15%
6.09
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
20.7
2/2
20%
4.81
2/X
8%
13.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.7 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
48%
-10.9pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.5pp
34%
Away Win
28%
+6.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
63%
-6.4pp
43%
BTTS No
37%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax II EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.33/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.60
-16% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
326 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 77%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.9
19.7 Crosses 11.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Helmond Sport
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Ajax II
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.26 xG 1.09
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
230 Passes 524
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
27.11.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 4-1 HT 0-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
27.01.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-1 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
07.10.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 0-1 HT 0-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
20.12.2021 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
01.10.2021 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 3-1 HT 1-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
05.04.2021 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-1 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Helmond Sport
3-1
AWAY Ajax II
1.04 xG 1.88
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
280 Passes 517
78% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 11
12 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Helmond Sport vs Ajax II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Helmond Sport got the better of Ajax II 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Helmond Sport made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Helmond Sport had 38% of the ball to Ajax II's 62%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 1.04 to 1.88 — the balance of chances actually favoured Ajax II.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Helmond Sport had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Helmond Sport and 1.33 for Ajax II.

What was the final score of Helmond Sport vs Ajax II?

Helmond Sport 3-1 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Helmond Sport vs Ajax II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Helmond Sport win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Helmond Sport 38%, draw 28%, Ajax II 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Helmond Sport), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Helmond Sport) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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