Den Bosch 2-2 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 19 Apr 2024

📅19/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
44%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.42
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.47
6+ Goals
10%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 29% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.26
1/2
9%
24.85
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
14%
7.22
X/2
17%
4.54
X/X
13%
4.74
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.74
2/X
7%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
27%
+3.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
44%
Away Win
47%
-2.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.9pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Den Bosch EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 50%
+5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +11%
1.09/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.22
-8% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +4%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
279 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 78%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
17.2 Crosses 18.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Den Bosch
1W-1D-4L
AWAY NAC Breda
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.79 xG 1.43
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
249 Passes 377
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 0
24.11.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-0 HT 0-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
07.04.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-0 HT 0-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
28.10.2022 Den Bosch Den Bosch 3-2 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
13.02.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-0 HT 1-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
03.12.2021 Den Bosch Den Bosch 0-5 HT 0-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
23.01.2021 Den Bosch Den Bosch 1-1 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Den Bosch
2-2
AWAY NAC Breda
0.37 xG 1.77
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
261 Passes 463
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
8 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Den Bosch vs NAC Breda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Den Bosch and NAC Breda shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was NAC Breda at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Den Bosch had 38% of the ball to NAC Breda's 62%, shots finished 7-16, expected goals 0.37 to 1.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NAC Breda led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Den Bosch and 2.17 for NAC Breda.

What was the final score of Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?

Den Bosch 2-2 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?

Before kick-off our model rated an NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Den Bosch 30%, draw 26%, NAC Breda 44%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (NAC Breda), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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