Telstar 2-3 Emmen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 19 Apr 2024

Telstar
2-3 HT 2-0
Emmen
📅19/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

Telstar vs Emmen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.33
2-3 Goals
40%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
2.97
6+ Goals
12%
8.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.71
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
17%
4.77
X/2
8%
7.15
X/X
13%
5.4
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.3
2/2
16%
4.77
2/X
7%
13.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-3.0pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.7pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+1.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.6pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Telstar v Emmen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Telstar EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Emmen EU Bookmakers 32%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.46/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.26
-4% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +33%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
346 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 75%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
21.3 Crosses 15.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.1

Telstar vs Emmen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Telstar
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Emmen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.67 xG 1.29
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
294 Passes 379
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
06.10.2023 Emmen Emmen 2-0 HT 2-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
27.03.2022 Emmen Emmen 2-1 HT 1-1 Telstar Telstar HOL2
06.08.2021 Telstar Telstar 1-1 HT 1-1 Emmen Emmen HOL2
09.04.2018 Emmen Emmen 2-3 HT 1-3 Telstar Telstar HOL2
08.12.2017 Telstar Telstar 0-0 HT 0-0 Emmen Emmen HOL2
13.03.2017 Telstar Telstar 2-2 HT 1-0 Emmen Emmen HOL2

Telstar 2-3 Emmen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Telstar
2-3
AWAY Emmen
0.89 xG 2.32
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
11 Corners 4
256 Passes 314
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 18
30 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Telstar vs Emmen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Emmen nicked a narrow win over Telstar 3-2 away from home. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Telstar at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Telstar had 48% of the ball to Emmen's 52%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 0.89 to 2.32 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Emmen's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Emmen led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Telstar and 1.50 for Emmen.

What was the final score of Telstar vs Emmen?

Telstar 2-3 Emmen in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Telstar vs Emmen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Telstar win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Telstar 44%, draw 26%, Emmen 30%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Telstar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Telstar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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