Utrecht II 1-1 Telstar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.94
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
45%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.77
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
26%
3.23
6+ Goals
8%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.77 — our 27% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.55
1/2
6%
24.45
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
5%
6.65
X/2
16%
4.87
X/X
15%
4.97
2/1
9%
31.5
2/2
23%
2.95
2/X
5%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
31%
-2.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
45%
Away Win
44%
+1.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.6pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht II EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Telstar EU Bookmakers 48%
-11% / -33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +10%
1.05/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/0.77
-38% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +76%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
354 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 76%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
12.9 Crosses 21.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht II
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Telstar
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.80 xG 0.80
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
279 Passes 349
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
13 Box Touches 19
9 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
29.03.2024 Telstar Telstar 5-1 HT 2-1 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
04.12.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-0 HT 0-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
13.02.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-1 HT 0-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
30.09.2022 Telstar Telstar 2-2 HT 1-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
29.04.2022 Telstar Telstar 1-3 HT 0-1 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
27.08.2021 Utrecht II Utrecht II 3-0 HT 2-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht II
1-1
AWAY Telstar
1.25 xG 0.84
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
334 Passes 377
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Utrecht II vs Telstar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht II and Telstar shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Telstar at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Utrecht II had 49% of the ball to Telstar's 51%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 1.25 to 0.84.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Utrecht II and 1.50 for Telstar.

What was the final score of Utrecht II vs Telstar?

Utrecht II 1-1 Telstar in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht II vs Telstar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Telstar win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Utrecht II 28%, draw 27%, Telstar 45%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Telstar), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Telstar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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