Once Caldas 1-2 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 2 Mar 2025

📅02/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.25
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
26%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.52
Over 2.5
36%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
41%
+4.2pp
29%
Draw
31%
-2.1pp
26%
Away Win
28%
-2.0pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.7pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.7pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.7pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +13%
1.19/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.39
+15% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
273 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 75%
15.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
18.1 Crosses 11.7
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.96 xG 0.95
52% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
282 Passes 270
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 14
27 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.10.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-0 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
26.03.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
26.09.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-1 HT 2-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
19.04.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-3 HT 0-2 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
24.10.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
09.05.2022 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-0 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
1-2
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
0.78 xG 0.49
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 1
329 Passes 368
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 10
19 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Petrolera nicked a narrow win over Once Caldas 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Once Caldas at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Once Caldas had 47% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 53%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 0.78 to 0.49.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Petrolera led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Once Caldas and 1.50 for Alianza Petrolera.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera?

Once Caldas 1-2 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 45%, draw 29%, Alianza Petrolera 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Once Caldas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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