Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Once Caldas v Alianza Petrolera — Team-Based Signals
Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-0
Once Caldas
KOL
0-3
HT 0-2
Alianza Petrolera
KOL
1-1
HT 0-1
Alianza Petrolera
KOL
2-0
HT 1-0
Once Caldas
KOL
Once Caldas 1-2 Alianza Petrolera — Actual Match Statistics
Alianza Petrolera nicked a narrow win over Once Caldas 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Once Caldas at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Once Caldas had 47% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 53%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 0.78 to 0.49.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Petrolera led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Once Caldas and 1.50 for Alianza Petrolera.
What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera?
Once Caldas 1-2 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera?
Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 45%, draw 29%, Alianza Petrolera 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.