Fortuna Sittard 1-1 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 2 Apr 2024

Fortuna Sittard
1-1 HT 0-0
NEC Nijmegen
📅02/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.27
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.8
Over 2.5
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.15
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.73
6+ Goals
15%
15.75
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.73 — our 25% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.41
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
9%
13.1
X/1
18%
5.14
X/2
13%
5.91
X/X
9%
4.44
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
28.5
2/2
13%
4.17
2/X
6%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 9% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
40%
+4.4pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.3pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-1.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.4pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fortuna Sittard v NEC Nijmegen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
1.46/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.45
-21% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +29%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
281 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 78%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
19.8 Crosses 17.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.6

Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Sittard
1W-2D-3L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.24 xG 2.12
44% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
279 Passes 387
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 34
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
15.12.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 4-1 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
28.05.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-1 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
19.10.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-2 HT 1-1 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOK
10.09.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
15.05.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-1 HT 0-1 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
02.10.2021 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-3 HT 1-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL

Fortuna Sittard 1-1 NEC Nijmegen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Sittard
1-1
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
3.03 xG 0.28
44% Ball Possession 56%
30 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 2
319 Passes 432
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
39 Box Touches 4
33 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Fortuna Sittard at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fortuna Sittard had 44% of the ball to NEC Nijmegen's 56%, shots finished 30-6, expected goals 3.03 to 0.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NEC Nijmegen led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 2.00 for NEC Nijmegen.

What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen?

Fortuna Sittard 1-1 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 02/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortuna Sittard win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Sittard 45%, draw 24%, NEC Nijmegen 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fortuna Sittard), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fortuna Sittard) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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