Stuttgart 3-1 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 2 Apr 2025

📅02/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
39%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.51
Over 2.5
54%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.3
2-3 Goals
43%
2.0
4-5 Goals
25%
2.63
6+ Goals
11%
6.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.53
1/2
9%
30.5
1/X
7%
12.25
X/1
8%
5.15
X/2 EV+ ✗
18%
8.26
X/X
12%
5.96
2/1
9%
20.65
2/2
12%
5.28
2/X
5%
13.0
Value flag · X/2 at 8.26 — our 18% vs market 8.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
49%
-12.3pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.1pp
39%
Away Win
27%
+12.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
36%
+9.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
64%
-9.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.7pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-32% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
366 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 76%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
12.0 Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stuttgart
2W-1D-3L
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.58 xG 1.22
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
399 Passes 436
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.01.2025 Stuttgart Stuttgart 2-1 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
27.01.2024 Stuttgart Stuttgart 5-2 HT 2-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
25.08.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 5-1 HT 0-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
27.01.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-1 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
07.08.2022 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-1 HT 1-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
15.01.2022 Stuttgart Stuttgart 0-2 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stuttgart
3-1
AWAY RB Leipzig
0.94 xG 2.08
33% Ball Possession 67%
9 Total Shots 25
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
178 Passes 459
66% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 30
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart saw off RB Leipzig 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 24% / 39%) promised a tight game; Stuttgart found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Stuttgart had 33% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 67%, shots finished 9-25, expected goals 0.94 to 2.08 — on chances, RB Leipzig could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Stuttgart and 2.17 for RB Leipzig.

What was the final score of Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?

Stuttgart 3-1 RB Leipzig in the Germany - DFB Cup on 02/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated an RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Stuttgart 37%, draw 24%, RB Leipzig 39%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (RB Leipzig) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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