Stuttgart 5-2 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.38
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.5
No
45%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.59
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.9
6+ Goals
12%
8.34
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.44
1/2
8%
25.0
1/X
7%
12.4
X/1
9%
5.72
X/2
12%
5.82
X/X
12%
5.32
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
25.0
2/2
16%
3.53
2/X
6%
12.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.0 — our 11% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
38%
+1.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-0.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
62%
-7.9pp
45%
BTTS No
38%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
1.67/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/1.23
+0% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +0%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
321 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 77%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.3
17.5 Crosses 15.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stuttgart
0W-1D-5L
AWAY RB Leipzig
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.98 xG 2.23
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
331 Passes 477
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 33
11 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
25.08.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 5-1 HT 0-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
27.01.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-1 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
07.08.2022 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-1 HT 1-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
15.01.2022 Stuttgart Stuttgart 0-2 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
20.08.2021 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4-0 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
25.04.2021 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stuttgart
5-2
AWAY RB Leipzig
2.27 xG 0.36
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 4
9 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
466 Passes 395
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart swept aside RB Leipzig 5-2. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 25% / 35% — and on the day Stuttgart made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Stuttgart had 54% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 46%, shots finished 18-4, expected goals 2.27 to 0.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Stuttgart and 2.67 for RB Leipzig.

What was the final score of Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?

Stuttgart 5-2 RB Leipzig in the Germany - Bundesliga on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stuttgart win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Stuttgart 39%, draw 25%, RB Leipzig 35%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stuttgart), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stuttgart) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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