Augsburg 2-3 Bayern Münih — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 27 Jan 2024

Augsburg
2-3 HT 0-2
Bayern Münih
📅27/01/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Augsburg vs Bayern Münih Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.91
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
56%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.89
Over 2.5
59%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.94
2-3 Goals
40%
2.18
4-5 Goals
28%
2.48
6+ Goals
13%
4.94
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
11.15
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
18.85
1/X
5%
19.05
X/1
6%
16.75
X/2
16%
3.77
X/X
9%
8.65
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
30%
1.54
2/X
9%
19.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 18.85 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
14%
+8.2pp
22%
Draw
18%
+4.2pp
55%
Away Win
68%
-12.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
31%
+9.5pp
59%
Over 2.5
69%
-9.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.0pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Augsburg v Bayern Münih — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 72%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
0.93/2.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.35/1.07
-1% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -13%
33% Ball Possession 67%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
220 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 554 · 85%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 36.3
11.5 Crosses 20.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.5

Augsburg vs Bayern Münih Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.88 xG 2.38
30% Ball Possession 70%
9 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
188 Passes 555
64% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 42
10 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
27.08.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 3-1 HT 2-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
11.03.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 5-3 HT 4-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
19.10.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 2-5 HT 1-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AFK
17.09.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
09.04.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-0 HT 0-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
19.11.2021 Augsburg Augsburg 2-1 HT 2-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1

Augsburg 2-3 Bayern Münih — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
2-3
AWAY Bayern Münih
2.61 xG 2.33
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
300 Passes 480
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
31 Box Touches 27
24 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Bayern Münih
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih edged past Augsburg 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Augsburg had 41% of the ball to Bayern Münih's 59%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 2.61 to 2.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Augsburg and 2.50 for Bayern Münih.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Bayern Münih?

Augsburg 2-3 Bayern Münih in the Germany - Bundesliga on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Bayern Münih?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 22%, draw 22%, Bayern Münih 55%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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