Werder Bremen 3-1 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 27 Jan 2024

Werder Bremen
3-1 HT 1-1
Freiburg
📅27/01/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Werder Bremen vs Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.7
2-3 Goals
43%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.31
6+ Goals
10%
11.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 24% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.27
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
9%
12.5
X/1
12%
5.23
X/2
11%
6.12
X/X
13%
4.73
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
15%
4.07
2/X
7%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.3pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.9pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-0.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.7pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Werder Bremen v Freiburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +16%
1.43/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.46
+7% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
335 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 75%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
17.9 Crosses 16.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

Werder Bremen vs Freiburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Werder Bremen
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Freiburg
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.00 xG 1.56
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
302 Passes 421
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.08.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
16.04.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
22.10.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
13.02.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
17.10.2020 Freiburg Freiburg 1-1 HT 1-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
23.05.2020 Freiburg Freiburg 0-1 HT 0-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1

Werder Bremen 3-1 Freiburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Werder Bremen
3-1
AWAY Freiburg
2.49 xG 1.17
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
317 Passes 493
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
31 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Werder Bremen vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen beat Freiburg 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Werder Bremen found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Werder Bremen had 42% of the ball to Freiburg's 58%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 2.49 to 1.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.00 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Werder Bremen vs Freiburg?

Werder Bremen 3-1 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Werder Bremen vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Werder Bremen win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Werder Bremen 39%, draw 29%, Freiburg 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Werder Bremen), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Werder Bremen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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