Hoffenheim 1-1 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 27 Jan 2024

Hoffenheim
1-1 HT 1-1
Heidenheim
📅27/01/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Hoffenheim vs Heidenheim Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.51
Over 2.5
62%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.5
No
40%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.63
2-3 Goals
36%
2.02
4-5 Goals
28%
2.64
6+ Goals
17%
6.31
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.13
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
18%
4.36
X/2
8%
9.38
X/X
13%
6.31
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
19.7
2/2
11%
6.08
2/X
6%
14.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.7 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-4.2pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.8pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.4pp
38%
Under 2.5
36%
+1.9pp
62%
Over 2.5
64%
-1.9pp
60%
BTTS Yes
62%
-2.3pp
40%
BTTS No
38%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hoffenheim v Heidenheim — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 27%
-2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
2.02/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/0.90
+3% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +72%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
377 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 73%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
20.8 Crosses 16.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.0

Hoffenheim vs Heidenheim Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Heidenheim
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.97 xG 2.45
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 10
412 Passes 194
84% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Box Touches 36
25 Crosses 27
5 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
26.08.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-3 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1

Hoffenheim 1-1 Heidenheim — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
1-1
AWAY Heidenheim
2.93 xG 1.14
67% Ball Possession 33%
23 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 5
538 Passes 212
83% Pass Accuracy 68%
45 Box Touches 12
27 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim and Heidenheim couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Hoffenheim at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (60%) landed while over 2.5 goals (62%) missed.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 67% of the ball to Heidenheim's 33%, shots finished 23-14, expected goals 2.93 to 1.14.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Heidenheim?

Hoffenheim 1-1 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 49%, draw 26%, Heidenheim 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hoffenheim), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hoffenheim) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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