Stuttgart 2-1 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 15 Jan 2025

📅15/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.43
No
40%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.38
2-3 Goals
37%
2.0
4-5 Goals
29%
2.57
6+ Goals
14%
5.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.57
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
7%
12.0
X/1
13%
5.19
X/2
11%
7.91
X/X
11%
5.93
2/1 EV+ ✓
9%
20.35
2/2
10%
4.95
2/X
6%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.35 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-0.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
28%
Away Win
28%
+0.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+4.9pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-4.9pp
60%
BTTS Yes
66%
-5.9pp
40%
BTTS No
34%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -10%
1.95/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.56
+16% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
341 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 75%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
20.1 Crosses 12.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stuttgart
1W-1D-4L
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.33 xG 1.69
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
364 Passes 441
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.01.2024 Stuttgart Stuttgart 5-2 HT 2-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
25.08.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 5-1 HT 0-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
27.01.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-1 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
07.08.2022 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-1 HT 1-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
15.01.2022 Stuttgart Stuttgart 0-2 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
20.08.2021 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4-0 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stuttgart
2-1
AWAY RB Leipzig
2.57 xG 0.99
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 0
529 Passes 355
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
29 Box Touches 9
17 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart edged past RB Leipzig 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Stuttgart as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Stuttgart had 58% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 42%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 2.57 to 0.99 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Stuttgart's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Stuttgart and 2.67 for RB Leipzig.

What was the final score of Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?

Stuttgart 2-1 RB Leipzig in the Germany - Bundesliga on 15/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stuttgart win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Stuttgart 47%, draw 25%, RB Leipzig 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stuttgart), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stuttgart) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
15 Jan 2025
20:30 Bochum vs St. Pauli Analysis →
22:30 Werder Bremen vs Heidenheim Analysis →
22:30 Union Berlin vs Augsburg Analysis →
22:30 Bayern Münih vs Hoffenheim Analysis →