Union Berlin 0-2 Augsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 15 Jan 2025

Union Berlin
0-2 HT 0-2
Augsburg
📅15/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Union Berlin vs Augsburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.71
Over 2.5
53%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.77
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.94
6+ Goals
11%
18.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.94 — our 24% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.95
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
12.95
X/1
20%
4.77
X/2
13%
7.05
X/X
11%
4.2
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
27.5
2/2
14%
5.41
2/X
5%
13.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.5 — our 10% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-1.1pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.1pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+5.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
55%
-7.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
45%
+7.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.8pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Union Berlin v Augsburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Augsburg EU Bookmakers 31%
+15% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -7%
1.44/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.74
+3% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +0%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
349 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
21.3 Crosses 17.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3

Union Berlin vs Augsburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Berlin
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Augsburg
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.48 xG 1.31
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
376 Passes 256
79% Pass Accuracy 71%
27 Box Touches 16
27 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.04.2024 Augsburg Augsburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
25.11.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-1 HT 0-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
06.05.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
07.01.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-0 Augsburg Augsburg HAZ
09.11.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-2 HT 2-2 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
05.02.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 2-0 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1

Union Berlin 0-2 Augsburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Berlin
0-2
AWAY Augsburg
0.75 xG 1.26
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
401 Passes 315
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 27
26 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Union Berlin vs Augsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Augsburg got the better of Union Berlin 2-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Union Berlin at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Union Berlin had 55% of the ball to Augsburg's 45%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.75 to 1.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Augsburg led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Union Berlin and 1.33 for Augsburg.

What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Augsburg?

Union Berlin 0-2 Augsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 15/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Augsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 44%, draw 24%, Augsburg 32%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Union Berlin) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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