Werder Bremen 3-3 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 15 Jan 2025

Werder Bremen
3-3 HT 1-1
Heidenheim
📅15/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Werder Bremen vs Heidenheim Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.21
Over 2.5
58%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.61
No
43%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.25
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
28%
2.85
6+ Goals
14%
8.27
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.23
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.3
X/1
16%
4.5
X/2
7%
9.11
X/X
12%
5.72
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.8
2/2
13%
6.58
2/X
5%
14.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.8 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-4.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.3pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+2.8pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.1pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Werder Bremen v Heidenheim — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 26%
-2% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.57/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.67
-7% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +35%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
351 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 72%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
20.8 Crosses 15.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.4

Werder Bremen vs Heidenheim Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Werder Bremen
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Heidenheim
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.69 xG 1.37
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
414 Passes 250
78% Pass Accuracy 69%
25 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.02.2024 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 1-2 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
17.09.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 4-2 HT 2-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
12.03.2022 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-1 HT 1-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL2
01.10.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 3-0 HT 0-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
06.07.2020 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-2 HT 0-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1P
02.07.2020 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-0 HT 0-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1P

Werder Bremen 3-3 Heidenheim — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Werder Bremen
3-3
AWAY Heidenheim
1.54 xG 1.48
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
382 Passes 329
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 18
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Werder Bremen vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen and Heidenheim shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Werder Bremen at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Werder Bremen had 52% of the ball to Heidenheim's 48%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.54 to 1.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heidenheim led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.67 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of Werder Bremen vs Heidenheim?

Werder Bremen 3-3 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 15/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Werder Bremen vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Werder Bremen win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Werder Bremen 49%, draw 25%, Heidenheim 26%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Werder Bremen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Werder Bremen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
15 Jan 2025
20:30 Bochum vs St. Pauli Analysis →
22:30 Union Berlin vs Augsburg Analysis →
22:30 Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig Analysis →
22:30 Bayern Münih vs Hoffenheim Analysis →